Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 20.016888 21.714488 23.544959 25.675009 28.097724 30.782106 34.001600
2025-09-21 17.257063 19.577414 22.252588 25.602907 29.741598 34.762407 41.435668
2025-09-28 15.819008 18.579796 21.935866 26.401324 32.324701 40.126715 51.576741
2025-10-05 14.289785 17.204255 20.885670 26.010953 33.195692 43.311223 59.469876
2025-10-12 13.247194 16.284431 20.248256 25.989315 34.447449 47.120465 69.120070
2025-10-19 12.475790 15.616647 19.835232 26.166700 35.933648 51.466513 80.781986
2025-10-26 11.683709 14.836171 19.168546 25.861750 36.589799 54.547876 91.088120
2025-11-02 11.053559 14.219191 18.661633 25.711626 37.428996 58.047259 103.338905
2025-11-09 10.545432 13.729598 18.286200 25.703808 38.472574 62.085257 118.255773
2025-11-16 10.077765 13.261023 17.896291 25.617532 39.345575 65.953825 134.442823
2025-11-23 9.667537 12.846443 17.550622 25.557697 40.240476 70.041692 153.213699
2025-11-30 9.284184 12.446012 17.193540 25.435442 40.988827 73.974398 173.770863
2025-12-07 8.957834 12.124223 16.955112 25.527428 42.237035 79.525450 204.005088
2025-12-14 8.618478 11.764464 16.633011 25.444526 43.138839 84.567401 237.127578
2025-12-21 8.476911 11.700837 16.784519 26.231618 45.987027 95.476196 306.793315
2025-12-28 8.127320 11.289889 16.330862 25.843509 46.218993 99.410233 349.607422
2026-01-04 7.870746 11.012787 16.083023 25.821602 47.274211 106.114596 419.219977
2026-01-11 7.666958 10.808988 15.945119 25.997157 48.820161 114.949580 522.878037
2026-01-18 7.399832 10.488730 15.584927 25.695017 49.164617 120.036243 612.948993
2026-01-25 7.175295 10.227756 15.312831 25.546280 49.872024 126.727526 742.377069
2026-02-01 6.986926 10.017725 15.118110 25.538528 50.944606 135.299717 935.554850
2026-02-08 6.798942 9.799777 14.896230 25.453056 51.802199 143.514075 1181.926394
2026-02-15 6.625988 9.599576 14.695077 25.393779 52.727446 152.564841 1534.195424